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Nott'm Forest vs Leeds

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nott'm Forest win: 46.9%

Draw: 22.6%

Leeds win: 30.5%

Predicted: Nott'm Forest

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.79

More corners: Nott'm Forest (60.5% home / 39.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nott'm Forest

Yes

Probability Nott'm Forest wins or draws: 70.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Nott'm Forest Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 30%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Nott'm Forest (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nott'm Forest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.